Cement prices are expected to rise from January 2026 onwards as demand is likely to pick up after a recent decline, according to a report by Systematix Research.
The report highlighted that over the past month, the pan-India average cement prices have declined by Rs 6 per bag month-on-month (MoM), mainly due to price cuts in the southern and eastern regions.
It stated, "Expect a rebound in prices from Jan'26 onwards as demand is expected to catch up as well."
The prolonged monsoon has affected construction activity, especially in rural areas and infrastructure projects, resulting in weaker offtake and limiting companies' pricing power.Among all regions, the eastern market witnessed the steepest correction. Prices in Bihar fell by Rs 10-15 per bag following a Rs 30 per bag GST rate cut amid muted infrastructure activity due to the ongoing state elections. West Bengal also saw a price cut of Rs 10-12 per bag in several regions.In Chhattisgarh, prices remained stable at Rs 300 per bag, though labor shortages continued to be a common problem in the area.
In the southern region, cement prices softened by Rs 5-10 per bag, with the average price standing at Rs 325 per bag. Prices were relatively resilient in the northern and western regions, where average prices stood at Rs 365 per bag and Rs 335 per bag, respectively.Channel checks by the research firm revealed that although demand weakened due to the prolonged monsoon, it remained better on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
Dealers also confirmed that price hikes during the third quarter are unlikely due to the government's scrutiny over GST pass-through. However, they expect a rebound in prices from January 2026 onwards as demand is anticipated to recover with the resumption of construction activities.
Despite the near-term seasonal slowdown, the report noted that the cement sector is expected to showcase a strong recovery in the second half of the financial year. The recovery will be driven by robust demand from infrastructure projects and urban housing.
With most of the consolidation in the sector now complete, the report foresees a strong revival in prices along with a 7-8 per cent volume growth in H2FY26.