On 5 March, at this year's 14th National People's Congress, China announced its defence budget for 2025. The latest figure rises 7.2% year on year. Interestingly, Beijing maintained the growth rate of its military expenditure at precisely the same percentage as last year, and the year before, as Chairman Xi Jinping prioritizes development of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
According to figures released on the opening day of the Third Annual Session, a formal gathering of China's legislature, the 2025 defence budget will rise to CNY1.784665 trillion, which equates to USD249 billion. China firmly remains the world's second-largest spender on its military, trailing only the USA.
John Culver, a former US national intelligence officer and retired CIA analyst, astutely noted: "Beijing sets the defence budget target increase over each five-year period. It adjusts for inflation or emergency contingencies if necessary. From 2001 until the global financial crisis, they programed a doubling of the budget every five years, and hit it almost to the decimal point. Since 2010, they've programmed a doubling every ten years. The announced annual budget figure is top down, not bottom up. Example: 2014 = RMB808 billion; 2024 = RMB1,670 billion."
The 2,977 members of the National People's Congress automatically rubber-stamped this budget, and other national spending plans of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Held annually, the Two Sessions is the nearest thing to a carnival in China's serious and stultifying political calendar. It opened on 5 March and was due to close on the 11th.
This year's budget was a reminder that the double-digit percentage increases of a decade ago are long gone. In fact, this is the tenth year in a row where defence expenditure growth has been in single digits. Simultaneously, China's economy is trying to keep its chin above water; gross domestic product (GDP) growth is predicted to be 5% in the year ahead, the same as what it expected over the past two years. The 7.2% rise means defence spending as a percentage of GDP remains below 1.5%.
Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress, boasted that China has held the GDP percentage below 1.5% for many years, a rate lower than the world average.
