India will experience above-normal cumulative rainfall this monsoon, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season.
“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm,” India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.
El Nino conditions, associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are unlikely to develop this time, he said.
Parts of the country are already battling extreme heat and a significantly high number of heat wave days are expected in the April to June period. This could strain power grids and result in water shortages.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the country’s GDP.
Fifty-two per cent of the net cultivated area relies on the primary rain-bearing system. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.
A prediction of normal rainfall during the monsoon season, therefore, comes as a huge relief to the nation.
However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.
Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.
