The rupee slumped 28 paise to an all-time low of 90.43 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday, amid substantial foreign institutional investor outflows and restrained intervention from the Reserve Bank of India.
Forex traders said that restrained central bank intervention ahead of the crucial Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision and significant dollar demand from importers have exerted persistent downward pressure on the local currency.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 90.36. It slipped further to a record low of 90.43 against the greenback in initial deals, registering a loss of 28 paise from its previous closing level.
On Wednesday, the rupee breached the 90-a-dollar level for the first time to settle at a fresh all-time low of 90.15 against the greenback.
Meanwhile, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said the falling rupee is not affecting inflation or exports.
A falling rupee helps outward shipment but makes imports costlier.
Import-dependent sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and electronics may see lower benefits due to a rise in input costs, putting pressure on inflationary expectations, he said at an event on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.14 per cent higher at 98.99.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.49 per cent to USD 62.98 per barrel in futures trade.
Forex traders believe investors are adopting a cautious stance amid ongoing trade tensions with the US, with expectations of a settlement towards the end of the year.
"It seems that until the trade deal comes, we may see the rupee weaken further, and it may reach the levels of 91.00 soon. With a weak rupee, we do not expect the RBI to cut rates on Friday," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
On the macroeconomic front, India's GDP has already surprised on the upside, and the latest HSBC India Services PMI — a key index that measures whether businesses are growing or slowing — rose to 59.8 in November, supported by strong new orders.
"But the currency market isn’t trading on growth headlines anymore. It wants stability, clear policy guidance… and maybe a trade deal that doesn’t keep slipping away," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.
Pabari further added that "now all eyes turn to RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on December 5. Investors aren’t just listening to rate decisions. They want to hear his voice on the rupee."
The decision of the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-headed six-member rate-setting panel will be announced on Friday.
The meeting is taking place against the backdrop of falling inflation, rising GDP growth, the rupee crossing 90 against the dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
On the domestic equity market front, Sensex rose 45.99 points to 85,152.80 in early trade, while Nifty was up 14.35 points to 26,000.35.
Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 3,206.92 crore on a net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.