Some of the sugar shipments to India are likely to reach domestic shores before October 15, but the exact quantity remains difficult to estimate at this stage, a cooperative sugar mills body NFCSF chief said, even as the Centre's crackdown on hoarding has begun to cool prices.
Brazil is the only realistic source of imports for now, with Thailand, the other traditional supplier, ruled out as it is grappling with its own shortfall, National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) President Prakash Naiknavare told PTI on Sunday.
Transit time from Brazil to Indian ports typically takes 40-45 days, and cargo needs additional time to move from port to mill once it lands, he noted.
"So, it is difficult to put a number on how much can arrive before October 15th, but the possibility of some shipments arriving by then is good," Naiknavare said, but cautioned that quantifying the volume was difficult, given the process involved, from DGFT approvals and allocation to letter of credit issuance and shipment scheduling, which also hinges on port congestion in Brazil.
The government is unlikely to strictly enforce the October 31 deadline for arrivals, and shipments in transit beyond that date could still be allowed, he added.
"I believe they would be willing to consider shipments arriving after that date too. I don't think it will be treated as a hard and fast rule."On August 20, the government allowed duty-free import of up to 1 million tonne of raw sugar to check prices that rose sharply by 24 per cent to Rs 56-60 per kg in just one month in both retail and wholesale markets across India due to tight supplies.
PORT STATES SEEN GAINING FIRST ACCESS
Port-based states -- Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh -- are likely to receive the imported raw sugar faster than land-locked northern states, though the latter have historically also received such cargo via the same ports, moved onward by road or rail, Naiknavare said.
NO SUPPLY WORRIES
The federation has held its net sugar production estimate for the 2025-26 season (October-September) at 279 lakh tonne since the season began, unchanged despite repeated revisions by other industry groups, he said. The figure excludes an estimated 24 lakh tonne diverted to ethanol production.
Opening stock for the 2026-27 season (from October 1) is pegged at 35 lakh tonnes, comfortably covering the roughly 22 lakh tonnes of monthly domestic demand, with 15-20 lakh tonnes expected to carry over into November, by when early crushing should bring fresh supply into the market.
"I don't think there is going to be any panic situation," Naiknavare said.
Asked why the federation's steady estimates were not reflected in the government's earlier decision to permit exports, the official said the government based that call on data from state cane commissioners rather than industry associations, and that supply conditions at the time appeared to justify the move.
India shipped out just 8 lakh tonnes of sugar against a permitted quota of 20 lakh tonnes, hit by unfavourable price parity in the international market, Naiknavare said, adding that even without curbs, exports were unlikely to have crossed 10 lakh tonnes.
On May 13, the government banned sugar exports till September 30 to boost domestic availability and contain price rise.
PRICES FALL AFTER GOVERNMENT WARNING
The comments came after Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra, at a press conference last Friday, accused the industry of jacking up prices and hoarding stocks.
Naiknavare said the secretary had met representatives of the federation and the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) ahead of the briefing, and directed them to ensure adequate market supply and curb speculative pricing.
Ex-mill rates, which touched Rs 65-67/kg (excluding GST), fell by Rs 5/kg in tenders opened on Saturday, a trend the official expects to extend into the coming week as flying squads step up monitoring across states.
The Centre's stock-tightening measures, he said, have come in four phases: physical verification of mill-level stocks between August 1 and 14; a 200-tonne stock limit on traders; a separate cap on bulk buyers, who account for close to 65 per cent of domestic consumption and had built up cheaper forward positions; and, most recently, state-level inspections of trader and miller warehouses.
"Flying squads have also been deployed to monitor individual states, and we've appealed to our members accordingly. I expect conditions to improve significantly through the coming week," he said.
Cooperative mills, he noted, have largely operated within quota and steered clear of speculative activity.
GLOBAL PRICES BUCK THE TREND
In a departure from the usual pattern, international raw sugar prices dipped rather than rallied after India's import announcement.
Raw sugar prices briefly touched 18 cents/lb before slipping to about 17.50 cents, lower than the pre-announcement level of 17.85 cents, a move Naiknavare attributed to comfortable global supply, which he said should cushion any price impact from India's 10 lakh tonne import plan.
Landed cost and retail price trends will depend on how international markets open on Monday, factoring in freight, port clearance and inland transport costs, he said, noting that the imports will attract no customs duty.