Jammu and Kashmir experienced its lowest precipitation in over five decades in 2024, surpassing the 50-year low recorded in 1974.Rainfall levels plunged to just 870.9 mm in 2024, a sharp 29 per cent deficit compared to the annual average of 1232.3 mm, raising concerns over water scarcity and its cascading effects on agriculture, hydropower, and daily life. The anomaly has been attributed to a combination of climatic shifts and unusual weather phenomena, which have caused lower-than-expected rainfall throughout the year.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said 2024 marked the fifth consecutive year of below-normal precipitation in the Union Territory.In 2023, rainfall of 1146.6 mm was recorded, marking a deficit of 7 per cent while 2022 witnessed 1040.4 mm rainfall, recording a deficit of 16 per cent, he said, adding that 2021 recorded a rainfall of 892.5 mm, marking 28 per cent deficit, and 2020 experienced 982.2 mm precipitation with 20 per cent deficit.
“The region's precipitation levels continue to dwindle,” Keng said.
The dry conditions are particularly concerning given the UT’s reliance on consistent rainfall for its agricultural sector, which forms the backbone of the local economy. Crops such as rice, saffron, and apple orchards, which thrive on moderate to heavy rainfall, have already been impacted.“2024 was a challenging year for farmers,” said Zahoor Ahmad, a farmer from southern Pulwama district. “The lack of sufficient rainfall has led to reduced crop yields, and irrigation systems are struggling to meet the demand. We’re concerned about the future if the trend continues.”
The Jhelum River - vital for irrigation and drinking water in Kashmir - has been running at historically low levels, further stressing the local water management systems. The Jhelum at Sangam point in south Kashmir is currently flowing at a distressing level of -0.75 feet, while at Munshi Bagh in Srinagar, the water level stands at 3.73 feet.
Ghulam Ahmad Dar, a septuagenarian, who lives on the banks of Jhelum River in Srinagar, says he has never seen the level of water in the river as low as it has been in the last few weeks.
“The situation is pretty bad. We faced drought conditions last year as well, but not as bad as we are witnessing now,” he said.
Prof Shakil Romshoo, a renowned Earth Scientist specialising in Glaciology, Hydrology, and Climate Change, says keeping in view the changing climate in the region, it is expected that the trend would continue in the future.
With declining precipitation and increasing temperatures in summers, urban and rural areas of Kashmir alike are reporting reduced drinking water supplies.
Authorities are now looking at long-term strategies to mitigate the effects of low precipitation, with water conservation and efficient irrigation systems being highlighted as key areas for intervention.
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