China is unlikely to get directly involved in the “instability” between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, due to the current geopolitical scenario and tariff-related “complexities”, a former Indian Army commander has said.
He, however, also underscored that China’s friendship with Pakistan is a known fact.
“Post the Galwan 2020 incident, after a lot of consultations and deliberations between the two countries, the stand-off at the last of the friction points has been resolved,” former Eastern Command chief Lt Gen (retd) Rana Pratap Kalita told a news agency.
A “process of normalisation” has taken place after resolution of the last areas of conflict and bilateral mechanism has picked up, including talks to start direct flights and resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, he said.
Kalita also pointed out that both countries face hiked trade tariffs imposed by the US, which also impacts the global economy.
With India and China being manufacturing countries as well as major consumption markets, the impact of change in tariffs is bound to be felt more, he said.
“Seeing these complexities and geopolitical developments as well, whether there will be any direct manifestation of the Chinese towards the instability caused by the Pahalgam incident is difficult to predict at the moment. But as of now, I don’t see them getting directly involved,” the former army commander said.
“The vulnerability of the sea link with Pakistan is known. The importance of access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan for China is also a known fact,” Kalita added.
On vulnerability along the Bangladesh border, he said it remains and “more so after the change of government in Bangladesh”.
“After the Sheikh Hasina government was deposed, we have seen that there is a rising anti-India feeling in Bangladesh, which is being fueled by religious fundamentalists,” he said.
The release of leaders of terror groups like Ansarul Bangla from jail after the caretaker government came into power in Bangladesh has also “collectively added to the rise of the anti-India feeling”, he said.
The visit by senior Pakistan military officers, “including the DG of the ISI who met various people there adds to the vulnerability”, the former army commander said.
Migration from Bangladesh and infiltration to “spread Islamic fundamentalism within the northeast” because of the existing vulnerability borne by the demographic pattern, particularly in Assam and Tripura where it is sensitive and balanced, are areas of concern, he said.
Kalita said the narrow Siliguri corridor is also an area of vulnerability for India, as it provides strategic connectivity to the northeast.
The possible revival of terrorist camps in Bangladesh, where outfits like ULFA and others had bases, is another aspect of concern, he said.
Kalita, however, asserted that the Indian armed forces are prepared to face any eventuality.
“Periodic threat perception assessments are carried out regularly and a response mechanism is also prepared accordingly. I am confident about the preparation in the Eastern section to tackle any situation,” he said.